Schools are skilled at organising new school years. Every year, they solve a complex staffing puzzle all over again in order to provide pupils with a good education. Strategic Personnel Planning (SPP) adds an extra dimension to this. It makes visible how the workforce will develop in the coming years and what issues lie ahead. This insight helps school boards make strategic choices. At the same time, it gives the Hollands Noorden Education Region the insights to better align the Education Desk, the Training School, the Academy and research with the future needs of the region.
Looking beyond the next school year
Schools are used to working in an annual rhythm. Each school year is concluded, the staffing for the following year is finalised and then the cycle begins again. That works well, but also has a downside. ’In education we are very good at thinking in school years,’ says SPP project manager Paul Coenradie. ‘Actually, we work in a circle. We are busy trying to be able to provide the same education next year as this year. But sometimes we forget that staff development is not a series of separate school years, but a continuous timeline.’ To illustrate that difference, Coenradie uses a simple metaphor. ‘You know those rolled-up liquorice laces? Schools are very good at that rolled-up form. With our model, you unroll that lace. Then you suddenly get a view of what could happen in three, five or ten years’ time.'
Data provides insight into future developments
Strategic workforce planning is not a new idea within the Hollands Noorden Education Region. In recent years, the region developed a practical tool in collaboration with the HR learning network, which is now available to all participating school boards. ‘The current SWP is a further development of that tool. In 2025, we made the model available to the individual boards.’
‘The model maps out who is employed, what authorities people have and how the workforce is developing. We compare this against the expected student numbers. This creates a projection of the future need for teachers. The quality of these insights is entirely dependent on complete and up-to-date data. Therefore, the data is periodically supplemented and updated. Participating school boards now have their own dashboard, allowing them to analyse their own organisation and make strategic choices. In doing so, the educational region looks not only at teachers, but also at other roles that are important for the continuity of education.
Strategic workforce planning starts with a school's ambitions
‘Strategic workforce planning starts with two simple questions,’ says Coenradie. ‘Where are we going? And: how do we get there? The first question is about mission, vision and strategy. The second is about people. What establishment do you need for that? What do you currently have in-house and what will you need in the future?’ Those questions are becoming increasingly urgent. Retirement outflows are relatively easy to predict in this regard. Other forms of outflow, for example when employees leave the organisation or sector, are less easy to determine in advance. Ageing means that many experienced teachers will leave in the coming years, while pupil development varies greatly per sub-region. ‘In Den Helder we are seeing a decline in pupil numbers. There, the aforementioned ageing has a different effect than in growth areas such as Purmerend and Zaandam. We make those differences visible so that schools and the region can anticipate them better. The dashboard does not provide an automatic answer to these strategic questions. It provides the quantitative basis for discussion within governing bodies and for formulating multi-year ambitions in the education region.’
From annual staffing puzzle to strategic choices
For many schools, staff planning revolves primarily around the staffing for the coming academic year. Understandably so, Coenradie believes. ’A lower-school pupil takes fifteen subjects. That involves just as many teachers. Every year, schools piece together a complex staffing puzzle all over again. Sometimes you are short of a teacher for a few hours, or conversely, you have spare capacity somewhere. Putting that puzzle together is something schools are exceptionally good at.’ But precisely because all attention goes to the short term, the longer term often remains out of sight. ’With our model, for example, you can see that in three years’ time the German teacher is retiring and a year later the next one. Then you can decide now to train an extra person or to be slightly more generously staffed for a time. Thát is strategic human resource management.’
Value for the entire region
The tool does not only support individual school boards. By aggregating the data at regional and sub-regional levels, a much clearer picture of future developments also emerges.’Boards naturally look at their own organisation first. On behalf of these boards, we look at the societal challenge from the perspective of the education region. In five years’ time, we still want to be able to provide good education to all children in our region.‘It is precisely this regional perspective that makes it possible to better substantiate developments and make differences between, for example, sub-regions visible. The data can show, for instance, that current staffing levels and future staffing requirements for a subject like Dutch are starting to diverge. Whether this also leads to an actual labour market shortage depends, among other things, on future inflow, outflow and the availability of teachers. ’The picture in one sub-region can be completely different from elsewhere. By making that visible now, we can determine earlier where action is needed and whether that is primarily a task for an individual board or rather for the education region as a whole.'
Data as a compass for the region
The insights from SPP are not only valuable for individual school boards. They also help the Educational Region to make more targeted choices. In this way, the Education Desk, the Training School, the Academy and research can better align with the issues that will play a role in the coming years.
From insight to collective action
The dashboard is not a final product in this regard. The insights are discussed with the school boards and serve as input for the multi-year ambition agreements of the educational region. The central question in this process is: which challenges require joint action from the educational region and which actions belong to the individual boards? Based on this, targeted choices can be made regarding, for example, training, recruitment, retention, professionalisation and regional cooperation. By periodically updating the data, it is possible to monitor how developments are actually unfolding and whether chosen measures need to be adjusted.
To govern is to foresee
Looking ahead is especially important right now. Many schools are dealing with expiring subsidies and pupil numbers are falling in various subregions. As a result, governing bodies are currently hesitant to take on staff.’ Today, schools are sometimes hesitant with recruitment. That is understandable. But if you look further ahead, you see that in a number of subject areas we will face major shortages again in a few years’ time. That is precisely why it is important to start thinking now about training, development and retention.'
Strategic workforce planning not only helps schools with staffing for the next academic year, but above all with making strategic choices for the years that follow. Through the rolling out drops insight into future staffing needs is gained.